The potential war between Iran and a joint US-Israeli force presents a unique challenge to the longstanding alliance between these two nations. This conflict, if it escalates, could test the very foundations of their strategic partnership.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a seasoned political leader, has long navigated Israeli foreign policy with two key principles: an unwavering partnership with the US and a relentless battle against Iran's leadership. However, by drawing the US into what he perceives as Israel's existential struggle against Iran, Netanyahu is taking a significant risk that could strain this relationship.
Persuading President Donald Trump to join this war effort is a major achievement for Netanyahu, highlighting the strong bond between these leaders. If successful, they could swiftly achieve their shared goal of toppling the Iranian government, potentially avoiding a prolonged conflict. Yet, if the war persists, the ties between these allies could face further scrutiny.
Ofer Shelah, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, warns that a prolonged war could lead to a decline in public support for Israel in the US. This shift in public opinion, he argues, could be detrimental to Israel's interests in the long run. However, Netanyahu's focus on the immediate political gains suggests he is less concerned with long-term implications.
Netanyahu's ability to convince Trump to strike Iran together is the culmination of his decades-long proximity to Washington. As Israel's longest-serving leader, Netanyahu's fluency in English, honed during his youth in the US, has positioned him as Israel's bridge to America. Despite boasting tight relationships with American leaders, Netanyahu has witnessed a decline in support for Israel among the American public, particularly among Democrats.
The shift in American sympathies towards the Palestinians has been driven by Democrats, but even some Republicans and Trump's supporters have voiced opposition to the diplomatic and financial support Israel has received during its recent wars, particularly the devastating conflict in Gaza. This war has further isolated Israel internationally.
With a new war against Iran, Netanyahu is targeting an enemy that he and many Israelis view as an existential threat due to Iran's support for anti-Israeli militias, its ballistic missile arsenal, and its nuclear program. Netanyahu has led the charge against Iran on the world stage for much of his career, and he sees this war as an opportunity to deliver a decisive blow to the 'terror regime'.
However, the conflict has already had significant repercussions. US troops have been killed, travel has been disrupted across the region, and oil prices have surged, impacting the cost of living for Americans. The direction and aim of the war remain unclear, and every day brings new potential challenges and uncertainties.
Commentators like Nadav Eyal warn that Israel must be cautious not to lose the support of the American public, which is more important than striking military targets. Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser to both Democratic and Republican administrations, believes Netanyahu has little to lose from this war. With elections approaching, Netanyahu can use the war to divert attention from the failures of the October 7 attacks, positioning himself as a strong wartime leader fulfilling his lifelong pledge to confront Iran. Miller suggests that Trump, as Netanyahu's ally, holds the power to de-escalate the war at any time, and Netanyahu would likely follow suit.
This complex situation raises many questions and highlights the delicate balance between political ambitions and the potential consequences of military action.
